My two part non-predictive "prediction" column is up at Fort Collins Now, here (part 1) and here (part 2).
From part one:
The top of the ticket will set the stage for the entire election. The undecided “swing voters” are still, well, undecided, and how they vote in the presidential race will have a major effect on the races down ballot.
So who wins the Fort Collins “swing voters,” McCain or Obama? Don't count McCain out, even if this is a college town that has trended towards the blue side of purple the last few years. We know about the “energy” and “enthusiasm” for Obama, especially among young people. But has anyone else noticed that Obama has never gone above 50 percent in any Colorado poll? The most recent poll had McCain up by two points. For all we know, the “energy” of the youth vote will dissipate to college students sitting around in October saying “Barack Obama? Dude, that's sooooo February.”
Most pundits are correctly calling this race a referendum on Obama. McCain's challenge is simple: He needs to effectively sell himself as a comfortable vote for uneasy undecided voters. Putting aside the die-hard clipboard-carrying fainting-at-the-rally Obama supporters for a moment, will the average unaffiliated voter pull the lever for a guy who, just four years ago, was a state senator in Illinois?
Who knows? What I do know is that it will dramatically shape the down-ballot races.
From part two:
This is the most fluid presidential race since 1992. If you look at 2004, for example, the undecided center was only 5-10 percent of the electorate. As a result, both candidates ran campaigns designed to turn out their base voters. In 2008, the undecided center is much, much larger. That means that both presidential campaigns will work hard to attract “swing voters.” The presidential race could break—decisively—either way.
How do you predict the local down-ballot races? Without knowing how the presidential race will turn out, it’s pretty much impossible. (Sorry). If you look at voter registration and turnout patterns, a Republican needs to win about 47 percent of the unaffiliated voters in Fort Collins to win the city. What if John McCain wins 52-48 among unaffiliated voters in Fort Collins? If that were to happen (and polls indicate that it may), a down-ballot Republican would need to hold about 90 percent of those voters to hit the magic number of 47 percent. Then again, McCain could lose by that margin or more...
Two of the three seats on the Larimer County Commission are up this year. State Sen. Steve Johnson is challenging incumbent Democrat Randy Eubanks (appointed to replace Karen Wagner). Johnson has a tremendous network that he has built up over the past few decades, literally going back to his days as an undergrad at Colorado State University. He has a reputation for reaching across party lines. He has a grassroots and funding infrastructure. Randy Eubanks would be a formidable opponent for many Republican nominees. Unfortunately for Randy, Johnson is not your average Republican nominee.
In the other Commissioner race, Larimer County Surveyor Tom Donnelly is running against Loveland anti-growth activist Roger Hoffman. One of Donnelly's biggest attributes is his natural, plain-spoken rapport with the voters. Want to know where Donnelly stands? Ask him. Perhaps an even larger positive for Donnelly is that he gets to run against Roger Hoffman. (Are jobs a big issue for you? Hoffman is on the record as being against bringing new jobs to Larimer County (because jobs mean growth.) Talk about out of touch with concerns of the voters.)
